Trading Strategy Development Basics

This tutorial will guide you through the process of trading strategy development. A trading strategy is a set of rules or guidelines that a trader follows to make trading decisions. A well-designed trading strategy can help to increase the chances of success and reduce the risks of losses. In this tutorial, we will cover the basics of trading strategy development, including the different types of strategies, risk management, backtesting, experiments and examples of various methods for defining entries and exits points . The main objective is to measure and evaluate our strategy performance by testing, tweaking parameters reevaluate and generate measurable results in order to get better understanding of our strategy and its components. We will use real historical data to simulate and replay markets at different state and changing environment then analyze the outcome to identify the best market for our strategy, and we will be doing all of that the S.M.A.R.T. way.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMART_criteria

Table of contents

What is trading strategy
Risk/Money Management
- Profit targets
- Risk tolerance
Defining trades entries/exits
- Technical analysis
  - Technical Indicators
  - Chart patterns
- Fundamental analysis
  - News and/or Economic data
Strategy Testing
- Back-testing
- Forward-testing

What is Trading Strategy

A trading strategy is a set of rules that guide a trader's actions in the financial markets. The goal of a trading strategy is to identify profitable opportunities and minimize overall risk. Predefined rules could protect trading capital by it's managers personality traits and psychological traps like trading based on emotions or biases. There are many types of trading strategies, each type uses different tools and techniques to identify potential trades. While technological advancement is making trading more accessible it also introduce new trading concepts and components. The strategic approach to each of the components is equally important. We need a strategy for position sizing, entry and exit points, last but not least strategic thinking about fees. The combination of those 3 components is the absolute minimum that allows a trader to begin with basic Risk Management experiments.

Risk and Money Management

Money management is an essential part of trading strategy development. It involves determining the appropriate risk tolerance and setting profit targets.

Profit Targets

Profit targets are the levels at which a trader will take profits on a trade. Profit targets should be set based on the trader's risk-reward ratio and trading objectives.

Risk Tolerance

Risk tolerance is the amount of risk that a trader is willing to take on each trade. Risk tolerance should be set based on the trader's trading style, financial goals, and risk appetite.

Defining Trade Entries and Exits

Traders need to define their entry and exit points to execute their trading strategies effectively.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis can help traders to identify potential entry and exit points using chart patterns and technical indicators. Technical Indicators such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and stochastic oscillator can help traders to identify potential entry and exit points.

Chart Patterns

Chart patterns such as head and shoulders, double top, and cup and handle can help traders to identify early signs of possible trend reversal or continuation.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis the process of analyzing the underlying economic and financial factors that affect the price of assets. Such as important news and economic data.

News / Economic Data

Changes in central bank policies, economic data such as employment reports, GDP, and inflation can also have a significant impact on the price of assets. Traders can use fundamental analysis to identify potential entry and exit points based on changes in economic data. Many traders do the opposite they monitor news events not to trade, but to avoiding trading activity. Because those events make markets more volatile therefore unstable increasing the risks for sensitive strategies to the unpredictable levels

Strategy Testing

Strategy testing is the process of evaluating a trading strategy by back-testing and forward-testing.

Back-testing

Back-testing involves testing a trading strategy using historical data to evaluate its effectiveness. Back-testing can help traders to identify potential weaknesses in their trading strategy and to make necessary adjustments.

Forward-testing

Forward-testing involves testing a trading strategy in real-time using simulated trades. Forward-testing can help traders to evaluate the effectiveness of their trading strategy in real-time.

Developing a trading strategy is a critical part of becoming a successful trader. A trading strategy should be based on the trader's trading style, financial goals, and risk tolerance.